Keselowski Locks Up 2010 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Texas

Photo Credit: Autostock via Penske Racing


As Carl Edwards won the O'Reilly Auto Parts Challenge at Texas Motor Speeday through a green-white checkered run to the finish, attention to the NASCAR Nationwide Series quickly shifted to the 3rd place #22 Dodge driven by Brad Keselowski. Leaving the O'Reilly Auto Parts Challenge with a 465-point lead over Carl Edwards, Keselowski clinches the 2010 NASCAR Nationwide Series championship with two races still left to be run.


On the way to his first NASCAR overall points title, Brad Keselowski's efforts were helped by 24 top-5s along with 27 top-10 finishes. Running at the end of every race, the worst result for the #22 Dodge this season was 21st at Chicagoland Speedway. Accumulating 6 wins on the 2010 season, Brad Keselowski's dedication to a full season in NASCAR Nationwide Series made was pivotal him only 1of 12 drivers have carried out a full Nationwide Series schedule.



Photo Credit: Jonathon Ferrey/ Getty Images for NASCAR

Remembering just 4 seasons ago, Brad Keselowski was an unproven talent without a permanent stock car ride. Keselowski's future changed at O'Reilly Raceway Park when a truck team needed a substitute driver to replace their recently suspended wheelman. Taking pole and leading a considerable number of laps, the performance was enough to attract JR Motorsports to the Michigan native. Entrusted to the #88 Chevrolet in the NASCAR Nationwide Series for two full seasons, Keselowski won 6 races but was no match for the division's championship. Finishing 3rd in the points both 2008 and 2009, Brad Keselowski was bested by NASCAR Sprint Cup regulars in previous seasons. For 2010, Keselowski entered the ranks of full-time Sprint Cup Series by signing with Penske Racing but still had unfinished business inside of the Nationwide Series. This year with the support of Penske Racing's farm team, it was the Michigan state driver's turn to claim superiority.


A first title for Brad Keselowski, this championship is also the first in NASCAR for mega owner Roger Penske.

How the NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase Might End

Attempting to entertain ourselves with a prediction of this season's Chase for the Sprint Cup, in September I assembled a calculation on the potential finishing spots 5th through 14th after the Richmond race. Titled How The 2009 Chase for the Cup Could Shape, the mathematical calculations to previous race events wasn't entirely accurate (both charts placed Brian Vickers out of the Chase). Nonetheless, I thought it would be a fan and entertaining exercise to predict how the Chase will end for 2009.

Thanks to the changing competition of NASCAR's leading division the 2009 Chase for the Championship, some new contenders emerged beyond the charts. However, as the 12 drivers settled into the Chase, the winner of the past 3 editions of the NASCAR Sprint Cup 10-race championship continued on course. Jimmie Johnson and his #48 Chevrolet has been an indomitable team under the Hendrick Motorsport banner. However, Hendrick's new, old shoe Mark Martin has given Johnson a fair fight in 2009 winning 5 races in the season. However, Johnson has won 4 races only in the 10-race Chase. Neither of the top-2 point championship drivers have claimed a Cup victory at Homestead-Miami Speedway but neither has faltered badly around the 1.5 mile oval.

To arrive at a conclusion for the 2009 Chase, I've gone back to average the last 3 finishes at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In order of best to lesser performing at Homestead-Miami are the NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase drivers.

Best Finishers in Past 3 Homestead Races

Driver/ Average Calc. Finish/ Points Position

Carl Edwards/ 4.7 /11th
Denny Hamlin/ 6.3/ 8th
Mark Martin*/ 9.7/ 2rd
Jimmie Johnson/ 10.3/ 1st
Greg Biffle/ 10.7/ 7th
Jeff Gordon/ 10.7/ 3th
Kasey Kahne/ 11.3/ 10th
Tony Stewart/ 18.0/ 5th
Ryan Newman/ 21.3/ 9th
Juan Pablo Montoya/ 22.0/ 6th
Kurt Busch/ 29.3/ 4th
Brian Vickers/ 31.7/ 12th

*Mark Martin's three finishes were taken through 2007-2005 since Martin did not compete in last season's Homestead finale.


Modeling the Chase drivers' past three Sprint Cup races at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the following is the average finishes that can be expected from the top 12 point contenders:


Driver/Proposed Points Position at End

1. Jimmie Johnson/ 6,626
2. Mark Martin/ 6,518
3. Jeff Gordon/ 6,453
4. Kurt Busch/ 6,357
5. Tony Stewart/ 6,316
6. Greg Biffle/ 6,301 +1
7. Juan Pablo Montoya/ 6,300 -1
8. Denny Hamlin/ 6,290
9. Ryan Newman/ 6,181
10. Kasey Kahne/ 6,146
11. Carl Edwards/ 6,127
12. Brian Vickers/ 5,892

Using this data, the only change in the entire top 12 drivers in the 2009 chase would involve Greg Biffle moving a position up on Juan Pablo Montoya by just 1 point. However, based on Montoya's stellar stock car performance through the last half of the Cup season, it is very likely that the #42 Chevrolet could buck the 3-year trend.

Is Jimmie Johnson destined to make NASCAR Sprint Cup history by winning his 4th straight championship this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway? The race Ford 400 scheduled for Sunday will certainly decide the official outcome for the 2009 Chase for the Cup.