For ten years, NASCAR has been operating the Chase in the Sprint Cup series as a playoff for major league stock car racing. For 2014 though, the Chase has received a substantial makeover. Up to 16 drivers in contention, three rounds involving drivers getting knocked out and Homestead-Miami Speedway becoming a guaranteed showdown for four finalists is new traits found in the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chasse. The only lingering leftover from the last chase format is the 10 races used to decide the championship’s outcome.
Attempting to predict the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup, I have considered the prospect computing race results of the 16 drivers participating in this year’s hunt. Using the historical finishes or average finishes, I came up with three interesting outcomes. Keep note that I am not taking into consideration the bonus points for victory in calculations. Using the Challenger, Contender and Eliminator rounds, I compiled the average finishes of each driver. With this information, I have extracted some entertaining accounts of where the 16 Chase drivers could end up in the 2014 championship fight. While I tried to make this a decent math lesson for myself, please do not put money on this information (I most certainly would not put my money on the line).
The following scenarios is work compiled as merely an entertaining exercise to see if the NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase champion could be arrived to even before the first race at Chicagoland Speedway has received a green flag:
Potential Chase Outcome Scenario #1: Based on 2013 Finishes
Let’s say if for some miraculous reason drivers somehow finish races in identical or similar positions as 2013, the conclusion will be highly favourable for three of the four Hendrick Motorsports cars heading into homestead. In this study, in addition to average finishes, I have taken into account 2013 wins by some drivers as automatic entry into the next Chase round. This allowed Brad Keselowski to advance through the Contender round and given Jeff Gordon a chance to compete for the NASCAR Sprint Cup in this possible Chase.
Since AJ Allmendinger did not run in all 10 races in 2013, I substituted 2014 results at the tracks where he did not run last fall.
| Finalists | Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
| Jimmie Johnson | |
| Kevin Harvick | |
| Jeff Gordon | |
| Eliminated in Eliminator Round | Brad Keselowski |
| Carl Edwards | |
| Matt Kenseth | |
| Kurt Busch | |
| Eliminated in Contender Round | Joey Logano |
| Ryan Newman | |
| Kyle Busch | |
| Greg Biffle | |
| Eliminated in Challenger Round | Kasey Kahne |
| AJ Allmendinger | |
| Denny Hamlin | |
| Aric Almirola |
Potential Chase Outcome Scenario #2: Last Race Run by Driver at Track
In this one, I used data from the last time drivers completed at a specific track on the Chase schedule. Eight of those race tracks have already held 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup races. In the case of Chicagoland Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway, I used the 2013 races for both ovals.
| Finalists | Kevin Harvick |
| Jeff Gordon | |
| Jimmie Johnson | |
| Matt Kenseth | |
| Eliminated in Eliminator Round | Greg Biffle |
| Carl Edwards | |
| Kyle Busch | |
| Brad Keselowski | |
| Eliminated in Contender Round | Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
| Joey Logano | |
| Ryan Newman | |
| Denny Hamlin | |
| Eliminated in Challenger Round | Kasey Kahne |
| Kurt Busch | |
| AJ Allmendinger | |
| Aric Almirola |
Potential Chase Outcome Scenario #3: Average Career Finishes Mixed with Last Race Finishes
Since I thought that average career finishes might not have been entirely accurate, I decided to weigh their recent results on a driver’s average. In the case of Denny Hamlin, the result was no change. For Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth and Aric Almirola, the computation of measuring career finishes against recent finishes showed a around five-position overall improvement for the final 10 Chase race tracks. Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch have shown the largest negative change with their recent finishes measuring poorly to their career averages.
| Finalists | Carl Edwards |
| Jeff Gordon | |
| Jimmie Johnson | |
| Kyle Busch | |
| Eliminated in Eliminator Round | Kevin Harvick |
| Kasey Kahne | |
| Denny Hamlin | |
| Aric Almirola | |
| Eliminated in Contender Round | Brad Keselowski |
| Ryan Newman | |
| Kurt Busch | |
| Matt Kenseth | |
| Eliminated in Challenger Round | Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
| AJ Allmendinger | |
| Greg Biffle | |
| Joey Logano |
These three possible NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase outcomes are largely based on what has happened. One thing to know about the future is that it doesn’t always take advice from the past. There are so many variables beyond previous finishes to consider. The 2014 Chase has three drivers competing with their first full season with a different organization than in previous years. Also, Carl Edwards and long-time team Roush Fenway Racing are parting company at the end of this season potentially influencing the #99 Ford in a strongly positive or negative way. Tracks like Talladega Superspeedway and even Martinsville Speedway have to potential to radically shift the points balance.
With Chicagoland Speedway readying to host the first race of the 2014 Chase, all 16 drivers will be trying to register the right numbers to compete for the Sprint Cup at Homestead-Miami.
Information and photo source: NASCAR, Richmond International Raceway
