How the 2009 Chase for the Cup could shape

Saturday night's Chevy Rock and Roll 400 of the 2009 Sprint Cup series once again becomes the stage for what has been 25 races of hard work for competitors and teams. Besides dicing around the ultra-competitive 3/4 miles Richmond International Raceway, 14 drivers are fighting for the 2009 Chase for the Sprint Cup championship will finally be set at the end of the night for an 10 race run between 12 Sprint Cup drivers.

I thought it would be entertaining to compute a possible prediction to the how the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase for the Championship may shape. Since drivers 1st through 4th (Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Denny Hamlin) are locked into the championship, the drivers on the so-called bubble remains undecided at the green flag tonight's (September 12) Chevy Rock and Roll 400. What I have compiled is a statistical calculation of two scenarios that may shape positions 5th to 14th place going into the Chase for the Cup. The first involves a comparison and averaging of the past 3 Richmond races and the other uses average finishes through the past 3 races in 2009. Neither of the averages account for points leading a lap or the most laps.


Kyle Busch

Current position in Cup points: 14th (3,040)
Average 3 Finishes at Richmond: 1.33
Average Last 3 Races: 12.33


Brian Vickers

Current position in Cup points: 13th (3,057)
Average 3 Finishes at Richmond: 26.3
Average Last 3 Races: 6.67


Matt Kenseth

Current position in Cup points: 12th (3,077)
Average 3 Finishes at Richmond: 30
Average Last 3 Races: 13


Greg Biffle

Current position in Cup points: 11th (3,125)
Average 3 Finishes at Richmond: 15
Average Last 3 Races: 11.33


Mark Martin

Current position in Cup points: 10th (3,126)
Average 3 Finishes at Richmond: 4.33
Average Last 3 Races: 12.67


Ryan Newman

Current position in Cup points: 9th (3,138)
Average 3 Finishes at Richmond: 14.33
Average Last 3 Races: 10


Juan Montoya

Current position in Cup points: 8th (3,145)
Average 3 Finishes at Richmond: 24
Average Last 3 Races: 15.67


Kurt Busch

Current position in Cup points: 7th (3,152)
Average 3 Finishes at Richmond: 21.33
Average Last 3 Races: 27


Kasey Kahne

Current position in Cup points: 6th (3,153)
Average 3 Finishes at Richmond: 19.33
Average Last 3 Races: 13.33


Carl Edwards

Current position in Cup points: 5th (3,162)
Average 3 Finishes at Richmond: 15.33
Average Last 3 Races: 19


Points 5-14 According to Past 3 Richmond Finishes

5. Mark Martin 3259
6. Carl Edwards 3280
t7. Ryan Newman 3259
t7. Kasey Kahne 3259
9. Kurt Busch 3252
10. Greg Biffle 3243
11. Juan Pablo Montoya 3236
12. Kyle Busch 3225
13. Matt Kenseth 3150
14. Brian Vickers 3142


Points 5-14 According to Past 3 Races

5. Kasey Kahne 3277
6. Ryan Newman 3272
7. Carl Edwards 3268
8. Juan Pablo Montoya 3260
9. Greg Biffle 3255
10 Martin Martin 3250
11. Kurt Busch 3234
12. Matt Kenseth 3204
13. Brian Vickers 3203
14. Kyle Busch 3167


With this being a statistical calculation, one thing NASCAR racing teaches us is that the race takes place for a reason. Likely to foil these numbers Brian Vickers, Kurt Busch, and Juan Pablo Montoya have put together much better 2009 Sprint Cup season runs overall than compared to 2008. Also, Kyle Busch (a driver never needing motivation to win) will be inspired to break into the Chase after leading the race into the championship last year.

The broadcast for the Chevy Rock and Roll 400 is set for 7PM Eastern with the green expected to drop at 7:30PM tonight.