Chasing Numbers: Beyond the NASCAR Chase Drivers' Finishes at New Hampshire

 Photo Credit: 301763 Sarah Glenn/NASCAR via Getty Images

The second race of the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase provided the expected varying range of outcomes on the 1.058-mile New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Winning the Sylvania 300, Chase challenger Joey Logano locked his #22 Ford Fusion into the Contender round (securing both Penske Racing cars into the next progression in the 2014 Chase. On the other hand, Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin each experienced a dismal outing at New Hampshire. The #41 Chevrolet SS of Kurt Busch was recorded in 36th place while the #11 Toyota of Hamlin finished 37th. Due to the results, both drivers are on the outside of the 12-driver cut-off entering as the third and final race of the Challenger round wraps at Dover International Speedway. However, there is currently only 10 points separating 16th place from 11th place in the bottom end of the 2014 NASCAR Chase heading into Dover meaning the race is largely wide-open prior to Sunday's AAA 400.

Below is a chart mapping out how the 16 Chase eligible drivers performed compared to their 2013 results and career average. Joey Logano showed the biggest improvement but surprises also came from Aric Almirola and AJ Allmendinger who both stepped up their previous performances at New Hampshire.

		New Hampshire 2013	Career	Finish	2014 vs 2013	2014 vs Career
Jeff Gordon		15	11	26	-11	-15
Jimmie Johnson		4	10.5	5	-1	5.5
Dale Earnhardt Jr.		6	15.5	9	-3	6.5
Brad Keselowski		11	11.4	7	4	4.4
Kasey Kahne		37	16.7	23	14	-6.3
Joey Logano		14	19.3	1	13	18.3
Carl Edwards		9	13.8	17	-8	-3.2
AJ Allmendinger			24.2	13		11.2
Ryan Newman		16	13.6	18	-2	-4.4
Kevin Harvick		20	14.3	3	17	11.3
Kyle Busch		2	14.4	8	-6	6.4
Denny Hamlin		12	8.9	37	-25	-28.1
Aric Almirola		21	21.3	6	15	15.3
Matt Kenseth		1	13	21	-20	-8
Greg Biffle		3	15.7	16	-13	-0.3
Kurt Busch		13	15.4	36	-23	-20.6

NASCAR Chase Numbers to Watch for at New Hampshire

Photo Credit: Nick Laham/Getty Images

One race down, nine to go. The 10-race 2014 NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup is entering its second event this weekend with Brad Keselowski claiming a crucial victory. Securing himself a spot from the Challenger to the Contender round in the 2014 Chase, Keselowski's win is quite an impressive score for the Penske Racing driver. For the three years that Chicagoland has played host to the opening round of the NASCAR Chase, the winner has gone on to win the championship twice. Of course, with a new Chase system in place, it's hard to determine how much of an advantage an early Chase victory would be for winding up in contention for the trophy at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

One more important note leftover from the Chicagoland race is that the average finish for championship winners at the track was 2.33. For Brad Keselowski and Jeff Gordon, the historical calculations could bode well to their championship chances for 2014.

Here is a review of last week's race at Chicagoland comparing the 16 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase contenders run to historical data. Despite the all-new ladder Chase system, I still believe maintaining the highest possible result throughout the 10 races is key. For many driver's, improving on their 2013 and career average finish was paramount at the MyAFibStory.com 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. After the 2014 race Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr as well as Joey Logano rose to the Chase occasion by bettering both their 2013 result and average finish in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at the track. Aric Almirola's mechanical misfortunes at Chicagoland resulted in the driver of the #43 Ford Fusion furthest negative decline based on historic criteria.

Driver		Chicagoland 2013	Career	Finish	2014 vs 2013	2014 vs Career
Jeff Gordon		6	11.6	2	4	9.6
Jimmie Johnson		5	8.9	12	-7	-3.1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.		35	15.8	11	24	4.8
Brad Keselowski		7	12.6	1	6	11.6
Kasey Kahne		12	18.3	13	-1	5.3
Joey Logano		37	19.4	4	33	15.4
Carl Edwards		11	16	20	-9	-4
AJ Allmendinger		21	17.6	22	-1	-4.4
Ryan Newman		10	14.5	15	-5	-0.5
Kevin Harvick		3	9.9	5	-2	4.9
Kyle Busch		2	12.4	7	-5	5.4
Denny Hamlin		33	20.5	6	27	14.5
Aric Almirola		13	15	41	-28	-26
Matt Kenseth		1	11.8	10	-9	1.8
Greg Biffle		16	18	23	-7	-5
Kurt Busch		4	17.2	8	-4	9.2

For the second race 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase event, the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been part of the 10-race play-off style championship since its inception in 2004. This year's championship contender Matt Kenseth is seeking to defend his 2013 win. Comparing Career average finishes at New Hampshire, Kenseth's Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin holds the advantage. The driver of the #11 Toyota race car has placed in an average spot of 8.9 since joining the Sprint Cup series in 2006. Hamlin will start fourth on Sunday for the Sylvania 300.

The average finish for past championship winners at New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been ninth place. The worst finish at the track for a driver during a successful title run occurred in 2006 when Jimmie Johnson crossed the line in 39th place. In fact, two of Johnson's championships resulted in New Hampshire being his worst track in the Chase. The race in New England was also won twice by the year's champion with Kurt Busch in 2004 and Tony Stewart in 2011.

The 16 Chase contender along with 27 additional cars will race for 300 miles around the 1.058-mile oval track. As the final important number to state, start time for Sunday's event is 2:15 PM Eastern time.

Fuel Again Plays into Tony Stewart's Favour for New Hampshire Win

Photo Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

 

After kicking off the 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup with a bizarre fuel economy run at Chicagoland Speedway, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway was accounted on as a chance to solidify the contenders for the stock car racing championship. A 1.058-mile true oval, the New Hampshire Motor Speedway surface was indeed a different style track. With a race distance a little less than a 100 miles shorter than the Chicagoland event, it would seem unlikely NASCAR Sprint Cup racing fans would see a similar conclusion. Though the Sylvania 300 overall was its own, distinct race, some themes would repeat for the race that started with 43 cars on a Sunday afternoon.

 

Taking pole, Ryan Newman took dominion of the New Hampshire Motor Speedway early by leading the first 62 laps. With a lack of yellow flags through the early 1/3 distance of the race, Newman's #39 Chevrolet led heading into a green flag pit stop cycle for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series field. By the conclusion of pit stops, the #4 Red Bull Toyota of Kasey Kahne assumed the lead on lap 67.

 

Slowing the pace of the Sprint Cup stock cars for the first time, debris on the race track drew a yellow flag on lap 88. The first of only three race cautions, there were few opportunities to drastically improve a mishandling race car. Two Chase contending drivers were met with the most difficulty in the fast pace event at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Attempting to claim a much better finish than the 31st place he and the #11 Joe Gibbs Racing team collected at Chicagoland, driver Denny Hamlin would not find the 300-lap race as a turning point for their championship hopes. Struggling through the afternoon, Hamlin's best effort with the #11 Toyota team was a 29th place result.

 

Another Chase favourite started practically started the race one step behind after his #22 Penske Racing Dodge barely made it to the starting line-up after passing NASCAR inspection.

 

Electing for two tires instead of four,  the #5 Hendrick Motorsports car piloted by Mark Martin was catapulted to the lead. A potentially risky move to gain track position, Martin took full advantage of the front row launch on the race's restart. Leading through the 1/3 mark of the Sylvania 300, Martin conceded the top position back to the #4 car of Kahne. As the race progressed, Jeff Gordon would emerge supreme at lap 163 taking the lead from Kasey Kahne on the restart following a caution period that involved the #51 Chevrolet of Landon Cassill. Leading for 78 laps total for the day, Gordon was the second of three Hendrick Motorsports cars to take a NASCAR Sprint Cup bonus point for pacing the field.

Photo Credit: Hendrick Motorsports

  

The third and final caution period for the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway resulted with a tangle between Roush-Fenway Racing teammates. The #17 car of Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards' #99 Ford made contact in turn two drawing the yellow flag on lap 174. Despite the run-in, both drivers quickly recovered to top-10 finishes in the race. Edwards and Kenseth met quickly after the event confirming no ill-will for the accidental altercation on track.

 

With 123 laps remaining as the green flag was once more displayed on track, some teams pressed forward to complete the event on a very tight fuel strategy. One of those cars was the #33 Chevrolet of Clint Bowyer who eventually progressed to the lead after the #4 car of Kasey Kahne pitted. After missing the Chase for 2011, Bowyer was looking forward to gathering a consulation prize with the first win of the season with the #33 Richard Childress Racing team. However, with two laps remaining, Bowyer's Chevrolet slowed when the V-8 engine was finally starved of fuel. Running in second, Tony Stewart was in the right place at the right time to inherit the lead. Leading only the last 2 laps during the Sylvania 300, Tony Stewart celebrated his second win of the 2011 season. With two victories coming in consecutive races, Stewart launches to a considerable advantage in the Chase. After barely cracking the top-10 at Richmond, the #14 car driver is now propelled into the lead in the 2011 points after New Hampshire.

 

In the finishing order of the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Tony Stewart was followed by top-5 results by Brad Keselowski, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon and Brian Vickers. With the #83 Toyota of Vickers posting the best finish by a non-Chase contender, other drivers outside of the top-12 in NASCAR Sprint Cup points enjoying good runs on the 1.058-mile oval includes David Ragan in 7th, Juan Pablo Montoya in 9th and Regan Smith finishing 10th with the #78 Furniture Row Chevy.

 

With Tony Stewart leading the standings by 7 points over Kevin Harvick, the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Dover International Speedway for the third event in the Chase for the Cup on October 2nd.

  

2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup
Sylvania 300
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Race Results

Pos #| Car# | Driver  | Sponsor | Car Make

 

1. 14 Tony Stewart Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet
2. 2 Brad Keselowski Miller Lite Dodge
3. 16 Greg Biffle Ford40MPG.com Ford
4. 24 Jeff Gordon DuPont Chevrolet
5. 83 Brian Vickers Red Bull Toyota
6. 17 Matt Kenseth Affliction Clothing Ford
7. 6 David Ragan UPS Ford
8. 99 Carl Edwards Scotts Winterguard Ford
9. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya Degree Men Chevrolet
10. 78 Regan Smith Furniture Row Chevrolet
11. 18 Kyle Busch M&M's Toyota
12. 29 Kevin Harvick Budweiser Chevrolet
13. 31 Jeff Burton Caterpillar Chevrolet
14. 20 Joey Logano The Home Depot Toyota
15. 4 Kasey Kahne Red Bull Toyota
16. 56 Martin Truex, Jr. NAPA Auto Parts Toyota
17. 88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Diet Mountain Dew/National Guard Chevrolet
18. 48 Jimmie Johnson Lowe's Chevrolet
19. 47 Bobby Labonte Bush's Baked Beans Toyota
20. 27 Paul Menard Sylvania/Menards Chevrolet
21. 43 AJ Allmendinger Best Buy Ford
22. 22 Kurt Busch Shell Pennzoil Dodge
23. 1 Jamie McMurray AXE Cool Metal Chevrolet
24. 5 Mark Martin GoDaddy.com Chevrolet
25. 39 Ryan Newman Haas Automation Chevrolet
26. 33 Clint Bowyer Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet
27. 38 JJ Yeley Long John Silver's Ford
28. 0 David Reutimann Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota
29. 11 Denny Hamlin FedEx Ground Toyota
30. 9 Marcos Ambrose DeWalt Ford
31. 32 Mike Bliss Street King Ford
32. 34 David Gilliland Front Row Motorsports Ford
33. 51 Landon Cassill Phoenix Construction/Thank A Teacher Today Chev
34. 71 Andy Lally # Interstate Moving Services Ford
35. 36 Dave Blaney Golden Corral/HOF Richie Evans Chevrolet
36. 87 Joe Nemechek AM FM Energy Toyota
37. 66 Michael McDowell HP Racing Toyota
38. 30 David Stremme Inception Motorsports Chevrolet
39. 37 Josh Wise Front Row Motorsports Ford
40. 7 Robby Gordon SPEED Energy Dodge
41. 46 Scott Speed Red Line Oil Ford
42. 13 Casey Mears GEICO Toyota
43. 55 Travis Kvapil Front Row Motorsports Ford

Busch Spanks Rivals in New Hampshire NASCAR Camping World Truck Race

Photo Credit: Jerry Markland/Getty Images for NASCAR

By Reid Spencer
Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service

September 24, 2011)

LOUDON, N.H.—The Magic Mile gave Kyle Busch a chance to show his mastery.

 

Busch started from the pole and dominated Saturday’s F.W. Webb 175 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, a race in which only six Camping World Truck Series entries finished on the lead lap.

Busch, who led 165 of 175 laps, crossed the finish line 3.816 seconds ahead of runner-up Austin Dillon to post his sixth win in 14 starts this season and the 30th victory of his career. Kevin Harvick finished third, followed by Ron Hornaday Jr. and Johnny Sauter.

Busch led the first 130 laps and didn’t surrender the top spot until he came to pit road for tires and fuel on Lap 131. That handed the lead to Dillon, who didn’t pit until Lap 135.

By the time pit stops cycled through, Busch had opened his advantage over Dillon to nearly six seconds. Harvick was running third at that point, more than 12 seconds back.

Busch had led every lap in a Nationwide race at Phoenix earlier this year, but both he and crew chief Eric Phillips said the prospect of doing that in two different series in the same year didn’t affect their decision to pit earlier than Dillon did.

"I never thought of that, actually," Busch said. "But that’s cool. Certainly, Phoenix and Loudon, when I can hit it right, I can hit it right. The cars are really, really good. Today was no different. I don’t know what Eric’s strategy was to pit—I won’t say that early, but to pit early."

Phillips didn’t want to see a repeat of last week’s race at Chicagoland, which Dillon won.

"I came early, because I didn’t want to see what we tried to do last week, taking two tires," Phillips said. "I think we had about 13 seconds on third, when I decided to come to pit road, and Austin was right there with us. So I felt like, if I came early, that would kind of force Austin’s hand and some of the other guys.

"Kyle was really good getting on an off pit road, and we were able to run a second faster almost for about eight laps there before Austin pitted, and we had almost (six) seconds when it finally cycled between us. That paid off."

Though Dillon closed the gap over the final 30 laps, Busch was able to cruise to the win, breaking a string of five straight Chevrolet victories in the series. Dillon now is atop the truck standings by two points over James Buescher, who finished seventh, the first driver one lap down.

Over the closing laps, Dillon kept the big picture in mind—his quest for the series championship.

"I wish we could have come out a little closer to him off pit road," Dillon said. "I lost a little time getting onto pit road, and that hurt us. But we came out leading the points with six (races) to go. We’ll focus on that, and we’re happy with this finish."

Teams File Official Protests with INDYCAR New Hampshire Race Results

Photo Credit: Chris Jones

The IZOD INDYCAR Series' return to the 1.02 New Hampshire Motor Speedway oval succeeded in producing a memorable event. After 115 laps, the MoveThatBlock.com 225 race ended with the #28 Andretti Autosport car driven by Ryan Hunter-Reay presiding in victory lane. However, as the Florida native celebrated his first win since the 2010 Long Beach event, the result was marred by a subjective ruling by the IZOD INDYCAR Series race control.

Attempting to end the race with one final green flag run for the MoveThatBlock.com 225, damp weather conditions caused many drivers a sense of distress. Several competitors such as Will Power and James Hinchcliffe were livid in the cockpit as droplets of water were filling their visors and coating the New Hampshire Motor Speedway pavement. Against the wishes of what would be revealed to be many open wheel drivers, the green flag flew on lap 215. As Firestone racing slick tires struggle for grip, race drivers were brought to mercy of the very little traction remaining on the surface. Immediately on this double-file restart, the #7 car of Danica Patrick spun out of turn 4 coming to green collecting Takuma Sato's #5 KV Racing Technology vehicle as well as the #12 of championship contender Will Power. For some, the driver's anger was summed up in the actions of an infuriated Power. Jumping out of his Verizon Penske Racing Dallara, the Australian driver displayed obscenities with both hands directed towards INDYCAR Race Control.     

With those wrecked vehicles demoted in positions on the unsuccessful restart, the lead of the race was claimed by Newman/Haas Racing driver Oriol Servia. Appearing as if the Newman/Haas driver would take the New Hampshire victory, INDYCAR effectively cancelled the existence of the race's final 10 laps and the chaotic restart. The reset returned Andretti Autosport's Ryan Hunter-Reay to the top of the race lineup for lap 215. Throwing a red flag on the field following the last restart, INDYCAR chose to immediately call the race 10 laps ahead of the 225-lap distance. Slapping a tentative tag on the race results, the New Hampshire event ended with some teams and drivers instantly expressing their displeasure for INDYCAR's decision to revert the field back to their positions prior to the restart crash.

Target Chip Ganassi Racing and Newman/Haas Racing filed official protests against the race results of the MoveThatBlock.com INDY 225 within 30 minutes since the checkered flag fell on the controversial finish. Disputing that the race result ruling goes contrary to series rules, both teams had significant gains on the final restart deleted. For Newman/Haas Racing, their #2 car was guided to a certain victory at New Hampshire Motor Speedway through Oriol Servia's jump position in the lead ahead of the red flag. Through the reverted finishing order which is currently unofficial, Servia comes 2nd in the event with teammate James Hinchcliffe taking 4th.

Target Chip Ganassi Racing had a difficult MoveThatBlock.com 225 even as the #9 car of Scott Dixon claimed a 3rd place finish. The major heartbreak for the team resulted with their #10 car retired on lap 118 after a collision with Takuma Sato on a race restart. The #10 car driven by Dario Franchitti suffered a rare DNF result and opened the door for the driver championship rival Will Power to gain significantly on the day. Running 5th on the final restart, that championship challenger Power was along those caught in the frontstretch wreck greatly erasing the potential points gain on Franchitti. Able to hold on to a top-5 finish, Will Power close 15 points on Dario Franchitti in the overall 2011 IZOD INDYCAR Series championship.

Scheduled to take place during last week (August 22-26), a hearing will be assembled byINDYCAR president of competition and operations Brian Barnhart. Criticized for his role in Race Control Sunday for electing to green flag the field for the notorious restart, Barnhart emphasizes the hearing will involve a panel of selected individuals. "Given my role in Race Control, I feel that it is in everyone's best interest to have an independent panel hear the protests. I believe a panel will help maintain a fair hearing." said Barnhart. Hearing panel judges have not been chosen by this name but should be decided soon.

Although Andretti Autosport was not part of the official protest (despite losing a vehicle on the poorly-conceived restart), the #28 team representatives will be present at the upcoming hearing. The Andretti Autosport #28 team's victory grants the organization interest in the overall outcome of the official INDYCAR ruling for the New Hampshire Motor Speedway event.

Intent to overturn the current result of the New Hampshire Motor Speedway event, Target Chip Ganassi Racing and Newman/Haas Racing are likely to be fighting an uphill battle. In the current series' 15-year history, a race victory has never been altered through post-race hearings.

Ryan Newman Starts on Pole for New Hampshire Cup Race

Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

A reintroduction to flat, short track racing, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is set to compete on the smallest track since Dover in May. The 1.058-mile oval of New Hampshire Motor Speedway hosts its first of two races in 2011 for North America's premier stock car racing organization.

In qualifying for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Lenox Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Ryan Newman piloted the #39 Stewart/Haas Racing Chevrolet to his 5th pole at the race track. Team owner Tony Stewart will start alongside Newman in the #14 Chevy. The NASCAR Sprint Cup race team is still seeking their first win for the 2011 season. In the second row, David Reutimann's #00 Toyota and the #22 Dodge of Kurt Busch line up for Sunday's race in Loudon.

2010 winners at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway start reasonably down on the grid for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301 race. Recording the 12th fastest time in qualifying Friday the #33 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, Clint Bowyer is still hunting his first win of the 2011 season. Past winner of the early summer event Jimmie Johnston is starting well down in 28th spot.

The New Hampshire Motor Speedway was the scene of Ryan Newman's first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victory in 2002. That year driving for Penske Racing through his first season, Newman's momentum from the New Hampshire race win allowed the Indiana native to beat Jimmie Johnson for Rookie of the Year.

While qualifying position is important at New Hampshire, 8 of the 32 previous NASCAR Sprint Cup races held at the oval were won by a driver who started outside of the top-20. Closing from the deepest position of 38th place to win in July of 1999 was Jeff Burton.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup's Lenox Industrial Tools 301 race is scheduled for 1 pm eastern time on Sunday.


2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Starting Line-up

1. 39 Ryan Newman U.S. Army Chevrolet
2. 14 Tony Stewart Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet
3. 00 David Reutimann Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota
4. 22 Kurt Busch Shell/Pennzoil Dodge
5. 2 Brad Keselowski Miller Lite Dodge
6. 31 Jeff Burton Catepillar Chevrolet
7. 24 Jeff Gordon Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet
8. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya Target Chevrolet
9. 27 Paul Menard Richmond/Menards Chevrolet Chevrolet
10. 4 Kasey Kahne Red Bull Toyota
11. 78 Regan Smith Furniture Row Chevrolet
12. 33 Clint Bowyer Good Sam/Cheerios Chevrolet
13. 56 Martin Truex Jr. NAPA Toyota
14. 11 Denny Hamlin FedEx Freight Toyota
15. 99 Carl Edwards Ortho Home Defense Ford
16. 20 Joey Logano Home Depot Toyota
17. 43 A J Allmendinger Best Buy Ford
18. 29 Kevin Harvick Budweiser Chevrolet
19. 18 Kyle Busch Interstate Batteries Toyota
20. 16 Greg Biffle 3M Ford
21. 83 Brian Vickers Red Bull Toyota
22. 9 Marcos Ambrose DeWALT Ford
23. 47 Bobby Labonte Capital Window/CapWinFund.com Toyota
24. 5 Mark Martin Godaddy.com Chevrolet 
25. 1 Jamie McMurray Bass Pro Shops/Tracker Boats Chevrolet
26. 6 David Ragan UPS Ford
27. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. National Guard/AMP Energy Chevrolet
28. 48 Jimmie Johnson Lowe's Chevrolet
29. 30 David Stremme Inception Racing Chevrolet
30. 17 Matt Kenseth Affliction Clothing Ford
31. 13 Casey Mears GEICO Toyota
32. 51 Landon Cassill Security Benefit/Thank A Teacher Today Chev
33. 66 Michael McDowell HP Racing LLC Toyota
34. 34 David Gilliland Front Row Motorsports Ford
35. 87 Joe Nemechek AMFMEnergy.com Toyota
36. 55 Jeff Green Front Row Motorsports Ford
37. 36 Dave Blaney Golden Corral Chevrolet
38. 38 J J Yeley Long John Silver's Ford
39. 60 Mike Skinner Big Red Toyota
40. 46 Erik Darnell Red Line Chevrolet
41. 32 Mike Bliss Starrett Ford
42. 7 Scott Wimmer SPEED Energy Dodge
43. 71 Andy Lally Interstate Moving Services Ford